Is America heading towards civil war?
There is an ancient curse, 'May you live interesting times'.
The Americans are big on saying they are the greatest country in the world. In this they can legitimately claim they are, but only in the context of the World Series. Never more so than this year am I glad that we live 4,200 miles away form the madness and there's a big body of water between us. But sadly it's not enough.
In the first quarter of 2025, America has changed beyond recognition - it has turned into a far right satellite of Russia. Fortunately, not everyone over the pond has bought into this BS. Beneath the bravado and the bluster, the Presidential edicts and sweeping brush of DOGE there is growing discontent from sober quarters that would in no other time become radicalised against the state. The state is becoming one nation under a jackboot and is teetering on the edge of an abyss, a nation hollowed out by economic collapse, gutted civil rights, and a relentless slide into fascism. The so-called 'land of the free' now resembles a pressure cooker of resentment and paranoia, where millions cling to a crumbling Constitution as if it were holy scripture, even as their government rots from the inside. The Government is firing dead cats into the mix like ordnance, to create chaos and confusion in the hope of pushing through an ideology that no Americans really want. The institutions meant to hold the republic together: the courts, Congress, the Presidency, are either paralysed by corruption or weaponised by extremists. With trust in democracy at an all-time low and armed militias swelling in the shadows, the question isn’t if America breaks, but when.
The American economy is unraveling, leaving the working and middle classes to bear the brunt of policies that favour the wealthy elite. Income inequality has soared to its highest level in over half a century, with the top 1% now commanding more than six times the total income of the bottom quintile. Between 1980 and 2022, while the bottom 90% of earners saw a wage growth of just 36%, the richest 1% enjoyed a staggering 162% increase, and the top 0.1% experienced a 301% surge. This chasm between the haves and have-nots has been further widened by the systematic dismantling of trade unions, whose membership has plummeted from over 30% in the mid-20th century to a mere 10.1% in 2022, eroding workers' bargaining power and suppressing wages.Peterson FoundationInequality.org
The current administration's aggressive trade policies have exacerbated the financial strain on everyday Americans. The imposition of a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts has driven the average new car price to nearly $50,000, with monthly payments averaging $750: a substantial increase from 2019. Consumers are now forced into longer-term financing, and the used car market has become less accessible due to soaring prices. Furthermore, the administration's crusade against Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives threatens to deepen existing pay disparities, particularly in states like California, where white residents' median income is roughly double that of Hispanic, Indigenous, and Black residents. These economic pressures, coupled with policies that disproportionately benefit the ultra-rich, are pushing the nation towards a point of no return, as the majority of Americans find themselves marginalised and disenfranchised in a system that increasingly resembles an oligarchy. MarketWatchAxiosTeen Vogue
So it is that The United States is fracturing under the weight of its own contradictions, as secessionist movements gain momentum across the nation. Disillusioned by a Federal government that appears increasingly disconnected from their values and needs, regions are actively seeking autonomy. In Oregon, the 'Greater Idaho' initiative aims to merge conservative eastern counties with Idaho, distancing themselves from the liberal policies of urban centers like Portland. Similarly, in Illinois, there's a push to separate Chicago's Cook County from the rest of the state, reflecting deepening urban-rural divides. Texas nationalists, organized around the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM), have secured political victories advocating for an independence referendum, while movements in New Hampshire and Louisiana echo these separatist sentiments. These developments underscore a nation splintering along ideological lines, with at least 12 states harbouring active secessionist campaigns. Newsweek
Compounding this internal discord is a growing unrest within the US military ranks. The recent dismissal of high-ranking officials, including the chair of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen CQ Brown, has alarmed former defence secretaries who see these actions as reckless and politically motivated. They warn that such purges undermine national security and erode the apolitical foundation essential to military integrity. Furthermore, a significant security breach involving top officials discussing sensitive operations in Yemen over unsecured channels has intensified concerns about the current administration's competence and respect for established protocols. This turmoil within the armed forces reflects a broader crisis of confidence, as those sworn to defend the Constitution grapple with leadership that appears increasingly unmoored from democratic principles and looks more and more contemptuous towards the nations founding principles.The GuardianFinancial Times+1
And then there's the big GOP elephant in the room. Gun control. With America's deeply ingrained gun culture and a population teetering on the brink, it seems only a matter of time before political violence escalates into outright assassination. The nation is awash with firearms, far more guns than people, and the rhetoric of armed resistance is no longer confined to the fringes. Both the far right and disaffected left-wing groups view violence as an inevitable response to a government they see as illegitimate. Trump, whose authoritarian impulses have already provoked deep-seated rage, remains a prime target, while figures like Elon Musk, positioned as a de facto power broker through his control of major communication and AI platforms, also stand in the crosshairs of a fractured, vengeful population that is very pissed off. It is no longer unthinkable that a senior member of the administration, or even the President himself, could fall victim to the same fate that befell Lincoln, Kennedy, or McKinley, as America's internal war of attrition barrels toward its inevitable flashpoint.
This week. the White House made this chilling tweet. It is a statement of intent. A death threat to its 'enemies'. But who exactly are these fuckers enemies? Iran? The Houties? Lefties? Drag Queens? Trans? NATO? The schoolyard bully across the pond is wish to have an isolationist approach because it is pissing everyone else off. Following the threatened invasions of Greenland or Canada and the inevitable invoking of article 5 that would ensue, this tweet would then be referring to us. It probably does anyway given the vitriolic contempt shown to its allies in the signal thread. This could feasibly relate to anyone domestic or international who stands in the way of these fucking wankspanners and it is only a matter of time before its our turn.
In the words of Jefferson Airplane. All your private property is targets for your enemy - and your enemy ... is me
It's hard to look from the outside and see anything but one of two alternatives, firstly the United States will leave NATO and end up at war with it over Greenland; the US is sleepwalking into a potential conflict with its former allies. Putin must be loving this - his investments and the long game through the KGB/GRU are starting to pay dividends. If Trump destabilises the country and attempts to withdraw from NATO, Europe will have to decide whether to sit back or act preemptively to contain the fallout. The idea of a US-NATO war once seemed absurd: now thanks to Trump it’s a real possibility. The military, the people, and even the states themselves may soon have to choose: defend the Constitution, or bend the knee to a would-be dictator. The clock is ticking. I looked at this in my blog the other day War Games - the worst case scenario https://www.tetleystldr.com/tetleystldr-blog/wargames-the-worst-case-scanario,
Secondly, and this is entirely feasible, the US could collapse into Civil War. The battle lines are already drawn.
The fault lines are clear: a corrupt, authoritarian movement led by Donald Trump versus the remnants of democracy barely holding on. The country's institutions are fraying, and the military itself may soon fracture along ideological lines. The First Amendment has been hijacked by extremists spewing hate, while the Second Amendment has turned the country into an armed camp. Civil discourse is dead, violence is now the language of politics. Trump’s trajectory is unmistakably fascist. His rhetoric, policies, and open admiration for autocrats prove he has no interest in democracy. His mass deportation plan, Plan 25, is already being denounced by senior military officials as unconstitutional, setting the stage for internal conflict. (The Guardian)The military itself is not monolithic. While Trump’s loyalists in the National Guard and paramilitary-adjacent police forces may obey his commands, the professional officer class, especially within the Navy, Air Force, and intelligence branches, sees him as a direct threat to national security. Many in the Pentagon, burned by his disastrous first term, are unlikely to follow orders that violate the Constitution. Special Forces and certain Marine Corps divisions, trained to uphold the rule of law, would also be resistant to being used as Trump’s private army.
Meanwhile, the far right, egged on by Trump and his cronies, is itching for war. The 'prepper' movement has gone from fringe paranoia to mainstream insurgency planning. Groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys are stockpiling arms, convinced they will need to 'take back' the country when Trump demands it. (The New Yorker)
Opposition isn’t limited to liberals. Radicalised Hispanic and immigrant communities, targeted by ICE raids and state-sanctioned violence, are preparing for self-defence. Trump’s policies are forcing millions into a corner, and history shows that marginalised groups pushed to the brink do not go quietly.
The grim reality of civil war is far removed from the romanticised notions of noble causes and heroic battles. History lays bare the brutal suffering endured during such conflicts. For instance, during the American Civil War of the 1860's, the Shenandoah Valley was subjected to a scorched-earth campaign, leaving civilians destitute and landscapes barren. Union General Philip Sheridan's forces burned crops, barns, and homes, leading to widespread starvation and displacement among the local population. Furthermore, the war's medical horrors were staggering; soldiers faced ghastly wounds from minié balls and artillery shells, with medical practices so rudimentary that amputation was often the primary recourse, resulting in piles of severed limbs outside makeshift hospitals. These historical accounts serve as a stark reminder that civil war inflicts profound and indiscriminate suffering, devastating both combatants and civilians alike.The Future of Freedom FoundationThe Telegraph
From the outside it looks like the MAGA movement is populated by morons. These are people who can barely string together a coherent sentence, who swallow propaganda whole because critical thinking is beyond them. They believe every word their grifters-in-chief spoon-feeds them, and even when confronted with undeniable lies, they lack the emotional capacity to process the betrayal. They are too far gone, too broken by decades of right-wing brain rot, to ever question their own side. If it comes to war, there is no doubt they will fight. They are armed to the teeth, stockpiling AR-15s and body armour like doomsday is a weekend hobby. It won’t matter that they’re fighting for a cause that sees them as nothing more than disposable foot soldiers, cannon fodder for billionaires and snake oil salesmen. All that matters is the rage, the blind loyalty, and the certainty that if their world is collapsing, they’ll take as many people down with them as they can.
And horrifyingly this is a highly plausible outcome. This is what America could very well have to look forward to with the current Junta in charge andas the curse goes, they may very well be living in interesting times. In interesting times the sensible approach is to keep your head down.
Oh say can you see...
