Wargames: the worst case scanario
In the past three months we have really gone through the looking glass. We have a Russian asset in the Whitehouse and our post WW2 relationship with the US is in tatters. It is clear the US is no longer our ally.
In the 1983 Film, Wargames starring Matthew Broderick, the world goes to the brink because of a rogue computer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGames What if the rogue actor in our modern world scenario is actually the POTUS? In the theatre of global politics, the unholy alliance between the POS so called leader of the free world Donald Trump and the autocratic despot Vladimir Putin has cast a long, ominous shadow over Europe. This grotesque partnership threatens to plunge the Europe into a maelstrom of conflict and instability. Trump, a narcissistic conman with a penchant for authoritarianism, has displayed a reckless disregard for international norms. His sycophantic admiration for Putin, a ruthless kleptocrat who has trampled on democracy and human rights, has emboldened Russian aggression and undermined the security of Europe. The so-called 'peace plan' for Ukraine, concocted by these two villains is nothing more than a thinly veiled capitulation to Russian imperialism. By side-lining Ukraine and its European allies, Trump has betrayed the very principles of sovereignty and self-determination. His Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, dismisses the restoration of Ukraine's borders as "unrealistic," effectively rewarding Putin's expansionist ambitions. Wikipedia+1Wikipedia+1
Europe is royally pissed off with the new regime in the FUofSA and dismayed at this treachery.
We are seeing that European nations are rapidly coming to the conclusion that they have been left to fend for themselves and it is dawning on them that should Trump make good on his word and send troops into Greenland and Canada, the rump NATO must invoke Article 5 and go to war with the US. Similarly if Russia wants to 'punish' Europe for supporting Ukraine we could very well be in a situation where Europe is fighting on two fronts. The formation of an informal European security council, comprising the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, is a desperate attempt to counterbalance the betrayal of their erstwhile American ally.
Yet, without the military might of the United States, this initiative risks being a paper tiger in the face of Russian aggression. The Guardian
Trump's asinine blame of Ukraine for the war, a conflict instigated by Putin's unprovoked invasion, further exemplifies his moral bankruptcy and ignorance. Such statements not only distort reality but also provide a propaganda coup for the Kremlin, undermining the legitimate struggle of the Ukrainian people. The dissemination of sensitive military plans via unsecured channels, involving individuals like journalist Jeffrey Goldberg, underscores the sheer incompetence and recklessness of the Trump administration. It also gives us a window into the level of contempt the US has for Europe. Such blunders compromise operational security and endanger lives, highlighting the administration's cavalier attitude towards matters of grave importance.
The malevolent collaboration between Trump and Putin represents a dire threat to European peace and stability. Their actions have sown discord, weakened alliances, and emboldened aggressors. It is imperative that Europe stands united against this tide of authoritarianism and betrayal, lest the continent be dragged into the abyss by the machinations of these two deplorable figures.
When I was young in the 70's , I always watched Brian Walden on Weekend World. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekend_World This was at the height of the cold war and Weekend World often war-gamed possible scenarios in the Middle East or in West Germany. The outcome was always the same. Someone would fire off a tactical weapon and that would signal the last 24 hours of humanity.
So today I thought I would be Brian Walden and game out a scenario. For this I used an AI platform where I asked it to game out a war in Europe but move the US on to the side of Russia. So this scenario is base on existing NATO gaming but includes the previously unthinkable US attacking NATO and invoking Article 5. Of course it's not a 'game'. it's deadly fucking serious.
In order to make this as real as possible this will cover
- North American Front – The US invasion of Canada & Greenland
- Baltic/Nordic Front – Russia's offensive into Finland, the Baltics, and the Suwałki Gap
- Western European Response – The UK, France, and Germany's countermeasures
- Global Fallout – China’s role, nuclear escalation, and economic collapse
DAY 1: LIGHTNING WAR BEGINS 03:00 UTC – US Forces Cross the Canadian Border
Under the pretence of "stabilisation," the 10th Mountain Division, elements of the 82nd Airborne, and National Guard units move into Ontario and Quebec. Ottawa wakes to reports of skirmishes near border crossings, with Canadian forces engaging US troops at Kingston and Niagara Falls. Canadian CF-18 Hornet jets scramble but are intercepted by superior US F-35 and F-22 fighters, leading to heavy losses. The US 2nd Marine Division lands in Nova Scotia, aiming to secure major ports.
04:30 UTC – Russian "Little Green Men" Seize Key Baltic Positions
Estonia and Latvia experience major cyberattacks crippling their command-and-control structures. Russian paratroopers land near Riga and Tallinn, disguised as pro-Russian separatists. The Suwałki Gap sees the first major artillery exchange, as Russian Iskander missile strikes hit Polish military bases.
DAY 2: NATO SCRAMBLES TO RESPOND 06:00 UTC – Denmark & Greenland in Crisis
US Amphibious Task Force under the USS America battle group arrives off Greenland’s coast. Greenland’s small military garrison (fewer than 1,000 personnel) attempts to resist but is overwhelmed. Denmark dispatches a naval force, but it is intercepted by US submarines in the North Atlantic. European capitals condemn the US aggression but are hesitant to commit forces.
09:15 UTC – First NATO Air Battle over Finland
Finnish F/A-18 Hornets intercept Russian bombers over Lapland. Russian Sukhoi fighters engage, leading to Finland’s first air-to-air losses since World War II. Russia uses Belarus as a staging ground for missile strikes against Warsaw and Vilnius.
12:30 UTC – French and British Warplanes Strike Back
French Rafales launch deep strikes into Russian positions in Latvia. RAF Typhoons conduct sorties over Greenland, engaging US F-35s in the first NATO vs. US aerial battle.
DAY 3: FULL-SCALE CONFLICT
02:00 UTC – Battle of the Suwałki Gap Begins
Polish Leopard 2 tanks engage Russian T-90M units attempting to cut off the Baltic states. Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters target Polish armour, leading to heavy casualties. Germany’s Panzer divisions deploy to support Poland, but Russian artillery proves devastating.
07:45 UTC – Canadian Resistance Rises
Toronto turns into a battleground, with Canadian special forces ambushing US military convoys. Montreal’s underground metro system is used by Canadian resistance, leading to street-by-street combat.
12:00 UTC – Russian Nuclear Threats Escalate
Russia deploys nuclear-capable bombers to Kaliningrad, directly threatening Berlin and Paris. NATO leaders begin discussions on pre-emptive nuclear options if Russia moves further west.
DAY 4
05:00 UTC – NATO Strikes Russian Supply Lines
German Tornado aircraft bomb Russian convoys in Belarus, slowing the advance into Poland. US forces in Canada face unexpected urban resistance as insurgents set fire to supply depots.
09:30 UTC – French Legionnaires Deploy to Norway
As Russia moves closer to Finnish borders, France sends elite paratroopers to reinforce the Nordic front.
14:00 UTC – Civilian Casualties Soar
Over 500,000 refugees flee the Baltics toward Germany and Sweden. Russian thermobaric weapons level parts of Tallinn and Riga, leading to NATO outrage
DAY 6-7: A WORLD ON THE BRINK
08:00 UTC – Chinese Warships Move Toward Taiwan
China exploits the chaos to launch military exercises near Taiwan, sparking fears of a second global front.
15:45 UTC – NATO Votes on Tactical Nuclear Strikes
France and the UK demand a nuclear response if Russia seizes Poland. Germany refuses to authorize first-strike options, leading to NATO divisions.
22:00 UTC – Moscow & Washington Exchange Ultimatums
Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons if NATO does not surrender Estonia and Latvia. The US warns France & Germany of “severe consequences” if they continue striking American assets.
POTENTIAL ENDGAME SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Russia and the US Split the World
The US formally annexes Canada and Greenland. Russia establishes puppet states in Poland, Finland, and the Baltics. China uses the distraction to seize Taiwan, reshaping global power forever.
Scenario 2: NATO’s Last Stand
France, Germany, and the UK continue resistance, leading to a brutal war of attrition. Massive insurgencies in occupied Europe and Canada bleed US & Russian forces. A prolonged, grinding conflict stretches into years, potentially drawing in Japan, Australia, and India.
Scenario 3: Mutually Assured Destruction
A rogue Russian commander fires a tactical nuke at a NATO base in Lithuania, leading to a full-scale nuclear retaliation. Within 48 hours, Paris, Berlin, Moscow, and Washington are reduced to radioactive wastelands. The world plunges into nuclear winter and civilization collapse.
In the film Wargames, Professor Falken's NORAD machine WOPR continuously games out scenarios and learns from these. It is almost a science fiction precursor of AI. The computer is finally stopped by playing an unwinnable game. Tic-Tac-Toe. From this it learns that the best way to win a Global Thermonuclear war is not to play it in the first place.
Of course this is fiction. This wargame simulation paints a realistic yet horrifying picture of how a US-Russia conflict against a Rump NATO could unfold. It exposes rhe fragility of alliances under stress, how hybrid warfare (cyber, urban insurgency, and special ops) could be more decisive than traditional tank battles abd the terrifying speed of escalation toward nuclear catastrophe.
There is precedent US gamed out a war with Britain in the 1930's called 'War Plan Red'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red In this they invaded Canada. So much for the special relationship which has always been a fiction. Of course, there are many other scenarios and you can be certain these are beeing examined as we speak by European military specialists. We have seen from the example of the fighting in Ukraine that it is not a foregone conclusion that the superpowers will walk over NATO. Denmark is already shoring up Greenland and will no doubt take out the US in Thule within the first few hours of a US attack, equally large swathes of the US military in Europe will be neutralised within hours of a war breaking out. Canada will certainly resort to guerrilla tactics, turning Canada into a second Vietnam, and the Russians are weakened from years of fighting Ukraine - it is fair to assume that the Eastern Europeans will fight fiercely. So, it may not be the pushover the gaming implies, and thankfully there are no guarantes that any hostilities will go nuclear. Let's hope we never have to test this out.
...SHALL WE PLAY A GAME DOCTOR FALKEN?...
...HOW ABOUT A NICE GAME OF CHESS?
The world has gone mad. If you enjoyed reading this, please feel free to look at the rest of the blogs on www.TetleysTLDR.com. They're free to view, there's no paywall, they aren't monetised and I won't ask you to buy me a coffee. Also please free to share anything you find of interest, we only get the message out if people are aware of it. Just a leftie, standing in front of another leftie, asking to be read. All the best, Tetley
