Can we still trust the USA?
As dust barely settles on that clusterfuck of a meeting in the Whitehouse between the dumb and dumber tag team of Trump and Vance and the ambushed Zelenskyy, there’s a lot to unpack. But one question stands out: Can the UK and Europe still trust the United States as an ally?
When we all grew up the US was always perceived as the arbiter of peace and leader of the free world: the world superpower that protected us from the Russians. That world seems now over although some historians view it as smoke and mirrors in any event. The land of the free spent decades funding despots, assassinating elected leaders, toppling Governments and funding Juntas. It’s easy to forget that prior to the cold war we were all on the side of the Russians against Germany and prior to that the US took a stance of isolationism, whilse at the same time being a war profiteer through its lend lease plans. It sat back while, in 1939, Russia and Germany carved up Poland and Britain and France fought Germany alone, with Britain, its commonwealth and European forces that could get out of Europe holding the line until the Americans joined the war in 1941. And then of course there's War Plan Red which literally blows the special relationship with the UK out of the water. So fast forward and there isn’t an easy answer. With tensions between Western democracies and rising global challenges, it’s crucial to examine the relationship between the US, the UK, and the broader European continent, particularly in light of actions carried out by the Trump government that have shaken longstanding international bonds.
And, of course, the Russian threat is very real and still there, with or without Donald Trump. It's t telling about Trumps spat that TASS, the Russian news agency, were in the room and the BBC and other key media platforms from allies were not.
Donald Trump’s approach to foreign relations is marked by unpredictability and an aggressive embrace of America First rhetoric. This isolationism, alongside his reluctance to maintain traditional diplomatic alliances, has raised doubts about whether the United States can still be relied upon as a stabilising force in global politics. Trump certainly can't. Trump’s actions are a clear signal that the United States might not be as dependable a partner in the future. During the 2018 NATO summit, Trump openly criticised European allies for not meeting defence spending targets, questioning whether the US should continue to uphold its commitment to the alliance. This left many in Europe, especially in the UK, wondering whether their security would be compromised if the US ever fully withdrew its support. Trump's public threats to pull out of NATO were particularly alarming, given the organisation’s role in ensuring peace and stability in Europe since it was created in 1949. It seems in his second term, he is doubling down on this.
To be fair, Europe hasn’t spent as much on defence as the US would like, but then Trump as a businessman would see that as less of a security threat and more of a threat to trade deals with US arms manufacturers. Trump always puts profit before people, especially when he can personally benefit. We’ve seen it before in his last term. One of the most glaring examples of Trump’s disregard for European interests was his decision to unilaterally withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. While European leaders worked to broker the agreement which was seen as a diplomatic victory for international cooperation, Trump’s withdrawal left them in a difficult position. For the UK and its European partners, this was more than just a blow to diplomatic efforts, it exposed the fragility of alliances when one major player could so easily abandon an agreement that had been a cornerstone of European foreign policy. Then there’s defence and its links to international trade. Trump’s approach to global trade is erratic to say the least. In his first term, his trade war with China had far-reaching consequences for European economies, especially those with close trading ties to both the US and China. By imposing tariffs and taking an increasingly combative stance on trade relations, Trump not only disrupted global supply chains but also weakened the international economic order, leaving many European nations scrambling to adapt to a new, more hostile global trade environment.
His second term looks no different as he seems hell bent on damaging global trade. Europe, in particular the EU are looking for other markets. For the UK, Trump’s “America First” trade policy also created complications. The prospect of a post-Brexit UK-US trade deal was held out as a potential benefit of leaving the EU, but the reality was far more complicated.
Despite the touchy feel meeting between Trump and Starmer in the Oval Office, Trump’s erratic policies, coupled with his disdain for traditional diplomatic protocols, made it difficult for the UK to trust that any trade agreement would be stable or beneficial in the long term. The question now is what happens to NATO if the US were to distance itself even further, or if the political climate in Washington was such that it pulls out entirely? The alliance remains intact for the time being, but only just.
For the first time since 1949, Europeans are making strategic military decisions without the input of the US, in particular for Ukraine and the protection of its Eastern border. There are significant concerns about its long-term viability in the face of a shifting geopolitical landscape. The rise of China, Russia’s growing belligerence, and increasing domestic challenges in both the US and Europe make NATO’s future uncertain, and if we’re being honest, if Russia attacked Poland or the Baltic States could we really be sure we have the US’s back? We are already in a hybrid war with Russia and have been for some years now. The cold war has been over for a long time but in the new world, Russia hacks Europeans websites, floods social media with right-wing bots, cosies up to nationalist parties in Europe, interferes in elections and maps out communication cables under the water in the North Sea and the Baltic. The Russian air force and navy are always testing the responses of Europe, particularly the UK.
Without the US as the dominant military power within NATO, European nations may be forced to up their game and this seems to be happening now. What this will do is lead to a re-evaluation of NATO, with the EU potentially taking a more prominent role in its own defence. France, for instance, has long advocated for a more independent European defence and an independent nuclear umbrella, separate from NATO’s command structure. If the US were to retreat further from Europe, it could push Europe to accelerate its military integration and self-sufficiency. This would have profound implications for transatlantic relations. In some ways this is already happening, and at speed. Trump has opened the box but the face of this uncertainty, Europe has options. The EU could focus on strengthening its own defence, investing more in its military and enhancing cooperation among EU member states. France, Germany, and the UK may find it increasingly necessary to bolster their military cooperation and form new security alliances within Europe. Only this week Starmer announced that money will be plundered from aid budgets to put into the military. Furthermore, Europe must continue to prioritise diplomacy, forging stronger ties with nations that share its values, such as Canada, Japan, and the emerging superpower in India. The US of course remains a key player on the world stage, but we need to think about our relationship with ensure our security and stability in a Trump world. Trump is causing Europe serious doubts about the reliability of the United States as a partner.
From undermining NATO to dismantling key international agreements, it appears is Trump is determined to erode much of the trust that has underpinned the transatlantic alliance for decades. Europe must now ask itself whether it can continue to rely on the US or whether it must forge a new path forward, one that recognises the need for a more independent and resilient Europe in the face of an uncertain global order, without the assumed support of the US.
The meeting in the Oval office with Zelenskyy was an eye opener. Whatever your view on the Ukraine war, the mask slipped and It showed US vulture capitalism at its most vicious. Trump, a President who knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing is simply incapable of strategic thinking. There's is now a huge GOP elephant in the room: Putin. He has Trumps ear: in fact the balance of probabilities is firmly in favour that he's pulling Trumps strings. I'd love to know what Putin has in Trump's honeytrap files? The irony is no matter what is in there, no matter how bad or damaging it would be to anyone else, there's 78 million people in the US who'd just shrug it off. But Putin, unlike Trump, has a plan. He wants to return the borders of Russia to its days of Empire glory. If Russia attacks Moldova, Poland, the Baltic States or Finland, can we really count on Trump? If the Russians storm the Sowalki gap will there be US F16's in the fray? Isn't that the least you'd expect from an ally? An ally, that despite Trumps protestations, has kept the US armament industry afloat for decades. It's worth remembering his betrayal of Ukraine isn't just limited to that meeting a couple of days ago in Washington. In the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, the US signed a Treaty that said it would protect Ukraine sovereignty from Russian aggression in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons. Well it failed to to that in the Crimea when Russia went in and rigged sham elections, it failed to stop Russia arming and training separatists in the Donbas, it failed to act when Wagner were on the ground in Lukhansk and it failed to act until it was shamed into action when Russia invaded in Putin's special military operation in 2022. Now Trump sees peace as transactional, a cash cow to get his paws on the rare minerals that Musk needs. And he squeeled like a piggy when Zelenskyy refused to act like a good little vassal and have his tummy tickled.
We need to ask, with friends like Trump, who needs enemies.
